Most exit polls are indicating a possibility of a hung assembly in the Karnataka state elections. In response, both the Congress and BJP parties have started backroom discussions to form a coalition government with the Janata Dal (Secular) party (JD(S)). The Congress leaders, including PCC chief D K Shivakumar and former CM Siddaramaiah, met with party general secretaries to plan their next move. Meanwhile, Union minister Shobha Karandlaje held discussions with BJP central leaders to prepare for various scenarios.
In the 2018 elections, BJP emerged as the largest party with 104 seats, but fell short of a majority by nine. Congress had 78 seats, and JD(S) had 37. To keep BJP out, Congress offered the CM post to JD(S), which led to HD Kumaraswamy becoming CM. However, this coalition government collapsed within a year due to defections engineered by BJP.
If the election results produce a similar outcome this time, it is unlikely that Kumaraswamy will become CM again. In addition, if JD(S) performs poorly as predicted by exit polls, a vertical split in the party may occur. Kumaraswamy has left for a brief holiday, but his biggest challenge will be to keep his party’s MLAs together in a hung assembly situation.
If Congress comes close to a majority, it is expected to court independents and smaller parties to form a government. But if it falls short of a majority and needs JD(S)’s support, it is unlikely that Siddaramaiah or Shivakumar will become CM as they do not have a good relationship with JD(S).
